Is There a Housing Bubble in these Hot, Hot Markets?

Texas is hotter than ever, but is it sustainable?

Housing in the state of Texas was hotter in 2016 that it’s ever been before, but is real estate in the Lone Star state getting too hot?

According to a recent report from the Texas Association of Realtors, there were more homes sold in 2016 than in any other year in history, and those homes sold for record prices as well.

But a new report from Fitch Ratings suggests that Texas is one a few states where home prices are not only unsustainable, they’re overheating.

According to the Fitch report, home prices nationwide rose by 1% in the third quarter of 2016, for a total increase of 3% through October 2016.

Fitch notes that the current price levels in most regions are sustainable, supported by improving unemployment and inflation-adjusted income growth rates.

But there are some states and some markets where prices are rising too quickly and therefore exceed supporting economic fundamentals.

Among those overheating markets are Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Portland.

As Fitch’s report, the Dallas metro area saw prices increase by 13.4% over the last year. And based on Fitch’s calculation, that means that prices in Dallas are between 10% and 14% higher than the market can sustain.

And it’s not just Dallas that’s overheating. According to Fitch, the whole state is overpriced by that same margin, between 10% and 14%.

Joining Dallas in the overpriced by double-digits category are Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Portland.

According to Fitch’s report, some other major markets are overpriced by between 5% and 9% compared to what each market can sustain, including Atlanta, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, and Tampa, Florida.

On a statewide level, home prices in Idaho are the most overvalued in the nation. According to Fitch, home prices in Idaho are overvalued by between 15% and 19%.

Beyond Texas, there are several other states where home prices are overvalued by between 10% and 14%, including Arizona, North Dakota, Nevada, and Oregon.

And other states, including California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, and Utah, are overpriced by between 5% and 9%.

On the other hand, there are some markets and some states where prices are undervalued.

According the report, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and New York City are all undervalued, compared to what each market can sustain.

From a state perspective, Connecticut, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island are undervalued.

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